Updated BLS Release Dates

Stop with the conspiracy theories! And about the December Fed Meeting

In case you missed it: my preview of the September jobs report

TL;DR: We’ll be getting the November jobs report on December 16th, and the October JOLTS report on December 9th. At that point the BLS will be fully caught up on the high frequency data.

This post covers:

1. Updated Release Dates for JOLTS and the Jobs Report

2. Stop with the Conspiracy Theories!

3. Data for the December FOMC Meeting

More below.

1. Updated Release Dates for JOLTS and the Jobs Report

After hitting the refresh button many times, we finally have an updated schedule for the key delayed BLS releases. We will be getting the October JOLTS report on December 9th, and the November BLS jobs report on December 16th. The September JOLTS reports and October jobs reports will be cancelled, but the data (insofar as it exists¹) will be published in the October JOLTS and November jobs reports.

The cancellations have triggered some foolish conspiracy theories, but in my opinion make sense. Publishing two additional reports would consume already overstretched BLS resources and senselessly delay the publication of the most timely data (October JOLTS, November CPS/CES) by at least a few days. Better to have that timely data as soon as possible.

We still have no information on the Q2 QCEW release date, which if I had to guess will be pushed back to January.

If

2. Stop with the Conspiracy Theories!

Ever since the shutdown ended, there has been recurring dystopian fan-fiction about the BLS supposedly covering up bad October data. I put out a video about this on Monday, but in case (like me) you prefer the written word, THESE CONSPIRACY THEORIES MAKE NO SENSE!

If there is in fact non-ephemeral bad news in the October data that was actually collected, it will show up once that data is included in the November jobs and October JOLTS reports. And while we won’t have an unemployment rate for October (because it and the rest of the CPS wasn’t collected; it’s a bummer), we will have one for November. This would be the silliest nefarious plot in the world.

Another conspiracy theory surrounds the Fed. In this tall tale, the government is intentionally suppressing labor market data in order to keep the Fed “blind” at their December 9th/10th meeting. This story is ridiculous unless you believe the supposedly-covered-up jobs data is better than everyone believes! After all, the administration wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. To further that goal you’d need to cover up good news, not bad news!

Like many folks, I am worried about eventual political interference in the collection and publication of government statistics. However, in this case, the truth is much more banal: an underfunded, understaffed statistics agency is doing its best to play catchup after an extended pause in operations.

3. Data for the December FOMC Meeting

Conspiracy theories aside, I do think it’s unfortunate that the FOMC won’t have the October & November jobs report in time for their December 9th/10th meeting. But they will have the October JOLTS data, which is almost as timely.

Remember, data in the October JOLTS release will correspond to the entirety of October for turnover data (hires, quits, layoffs) and to the end of October for openings. That is only slightly “older” than the CPS (November 9th-15th reference period) and CES (payroll period that includes November 12th). And while the CPS is the single best source of data for tracking labor market health, I’d put JOLTS ahead of the CES in second place. It’s not an ideal situation, but also not as bad as some folks make it out to be.

Alright, that’s enough writing about data publications that don’t exist yet! See you tomorrow with the September data.

1. We do not October data from the household survey (Current Population Survey, or CPS), because it wasn’t collected - per normal procedure during federal government shutdowns. This is unfortunate. The establishment survey and JOLTS will have data, partly because data collection is automated and partly because they have longer data collection periods (those lagged survey responses that cause revisions drive everyone bananas, but are a benefit this time around).