> My baseline is that the unemployment rate will peak between 4.5%-5.0%
The “Sahm rule” or “Dudley rule” is the observation that since WW2, when unemployment rises by a small amount (say 0.5%), it then goes on to rise by a large amount (at least 2%).
The Sahm Rule is about recessions, not about further increases in the unemployment rate. And (without disrespecting Claudia who is amazing!), it hasn't proven to be true in this cycle (so far).
> My baseline is that the unemployment rate will peak between 4.5%-5.0%
The “Sahm rule” or “Dudley rule” is the observation that since WW2, when unemployment rises by a small amount (say 0.5%), it then goes on to rise by a large amount (at least 2%).
Why would this time be different?
The Sahm Rule is about recessions, not about further increases in the unemployment rate. And (without disrespecting Claudia who is amazing!), it hasn't proven to be true in this cycle (so far).