Assuming state-to-state movement from high unemployment states (eg CA) to low unemployment states (eg FL) is it possible that responses in the former are being over weighted and the latter under weighted (i.e. biasing headline towards worse employment picture)? If so, could adding updated population data fix this?
Do you have any thoughts around the composition of the NFP revisions? Disregarding the total number, they show more weakness in manufacturing, professional and retail which is consistent with prior recessionary periods.
Will be interesting to see if this Friday's employment situation is more consistent with the trend in Indeed postings or JOLTS openings from a few months prior.
The labor mkt is not ok anymore.
Here is my article analyzing whether the economy is already in a recession:
https://arkominaresearch.substack.com/p/is-us-economy-in-recession?r=1r1n6n
Assuming state-to-state movement from high unemployment states (eg CA) to low unemployment states (eg FL) is it possible that responses in the former are being over weighted and the latter under weighted (i.e. biasing headline towards worse employment picture)? If so, could adding updated population data fix this?
Thanks Guy,
Do you have any thoughts around the composition of the NFP revisions? Disregarding the total number, they show more weakness in manufacturing, professional and retail which is consistent with prior recessionary periods.
Perhaps a sign of JOLTS reports to come: the decline in job postings on Indeed.com seems to have leveled off since June: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tpxj
I ran some regressions comparing the level of job postings on Indeed and employment growth in future months and saw a moderately strong relationship, which I wrote about in more detail last month: https://www.2120insights.com/p/how-to-peek-6-months-into-the-future
Will be interesting to see if this Friday's employment situation is more consistent with the trend in Indeed postings or JOLTS openings from a few months prior.